According to data from Lotu Technology, it is predicted that global projector shipments will reach 18.27 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than previously expected. Among them, 13.5 million units were shipped in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%—— The global projection market is experiencing structural decline and macro low temperatures, two major growth pressures.

The global projection market's "business education" is shrinking

In 2023, the traditional sector of global projector consumption, the business education market, will continue to maintain a "shrinking" situation. The global demand for business education projection has shrunk by 5% in 2022, and this trend has further expanding momentum in 2023.

Among them, the significant price reduction of large-sized LCD interactive displays and simple large-sized LCD conference display devices is the "main" replacement force for commercial and educational projection applications. In large classrooms and conference rooms, the replacement of LED direct display screens for engineering and educational projection is a secondary force: at least, any educational projection application now has alternative technologies to choose from.

Especially the replacement of educational projection by LCD blackboard products has developed to nearly 100% in the domestic market. Under the background of saturated demand in the domestic market, Chinese enterprises have increased their overseas layout in the context of business education interaction. In 2023, represented by the US market, the traditional "education multimedia procurement powerhouse" has strengthened its upgrade to new technology products. In the conference room market, the focus of the market impact brought by LCD display technology is not on "interactive products", but on ordinary LCD large screen devices. Especially in small and medium-sized conference rooms, the brightness effect of the 85 inch LCD screen is even better, and LCD has become the focus of multimedia demand in global conference rooms.

In the past decade, the global projection market has seen a decline in demand for business education from a peak of over 5 million units to an annual consumption level of only 3 million units. Almost half of the decrease of 2 million units comes from the substitution competition of LCD displays for projection in the Chinese market. As the world's largest manufacturer of LCD displays, China has taken the lead in achieving the rise of LCD screens in the business education market. The supply capacity of the industrial chain is accelerating the shaping of the procurement structure for global business education multimedia demand.

From the perspective of the global projection market, business education has always been a significant "scale" demand market. Encountering alternative competition has seriously affected the development trend of the entire projection industry. Analysis suggests that in the context of weak business education, the dominant position of household use has become the only focus that can save resources. The latter has also brought about changes in the consumption structure of the projection market.

The global market is more reliant on household use, and new technology upgrades are accelerating

From the distribution of projection light source technology, according to data from Lotu, in the first three quarters, the global market was still dominated by LED light sources, with a share of over 75%, and laser light sources accounted for 9.6% of global shipments; This is a significant increase compared to the global market share of 71% for LED light source types and 8.13% for laser products in 2022.

The overall market share of mercury lamp products has dropped to around 15%, and the annual sales decline in 2023 may reach as much as a quarter. At such a speed, by the end of 2024, the proportion of new light sources in the global projection market may reach around 10%. The accelerated penetration of new light source products is mainly related to the booming development of the household market. Among them, the increase in the proportion of LCD models directly drives the increase in the proportion of LED light sources.

Jimi RS Pro 3

According to data from Lotu, in the first three quarters of 2023, the proportion of shipments of 1LCD projectors in the global market was 61.6%, higher than the 59.0% for the entire year of 2022 (this data has been corrected by Lotu for the previous 61.8%). In addition, the hot sales in the home market, including DLP intelligent projection, have allowed more new light source products to enter the global market.

From a brand perspective, Epson, the world's number one projector, first launched laser display household products at a price of 3000 yuan in 2023, followed by Jimi and Nut, which ranked second and third, and became a staunch supporter of the new light source. The fourth ranked Youpai achieved a huge explosion in the layout of new light source products in 2023... In 2023, the "lowest price" and "average price" of laser light sources and tricolor laser light sources were further compressed, driving the laser technology product market to continue to grow at double-digit growth rates.

It is expected that the market's low temperature in the second half of 2023 will continue at least until around the first half of 2024. Therefore, the latest analysis from Lotu Technology suggests that the global projector market shipment volume will reach 19.31 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% - lower than the predicted 20 million units at the end of 2022. In fact, in 2023, major global electronic consumer products, including TV, PC, NB, mobile phones, etc., are all in a market downturn, even the lowest point in the past decade. Under such unfavorable circumstances, it is truly rare for global projection consumption to achieve growth in 2023.

In addition to further driving innovation competitiveness, the impact of macroeconomic temperature remains the "most important factor" in the changes in the global market in 2024. In this regard, most forecast information believes that with the end of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle, the global economic macro trend may "turn around", which is conducive to optimistic growth of the consumer market in the second half of 2024. Especially, in the second half of 2024, the Paris Olympics, the Copa America football tournament, the European Championship, the World Basketball Championship, and other events are expected to boost the enthusiasm for home investment sports consumption. At least, according to traditional rules, the Olympic year is a major year for household consumption of audiovisual products.

Therefore, the main factors contributing to the unexpected growth in global projection consumption in 2023, including the high growth base in 2022 (global projector market shipments reached 17.83 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%) and the impact of macroeconomic conditions, are expected to shift in 2024. The global market for projection is promising in 2024.